This past week, we’ve received a master class in the difference between polling and voting. There’s an enormous difference between an easy answer to a poll question, and the private choice in the stillness of a voting booth. And what we’ve witnessed is that when it comes to pulling the lever or marking the circle, Democrats are victorious in, at times, astonishing places and in astonishing ways. And MAGA Republicans are enduring so much … losing.
But MAGA does look good in the polls. A year out. As I tell my worried friends, we’re going to enjoy an entire NBA season, and then an entire baseball season, and I’ll be worried about Ohio State – Michigan NEXT year, before we hold a national election. That’s an eternity.
And an eternity that will be filled on a weekly basis with Trump’s tantrums after his lies, fantasies, bullshit, call them what you will, run into the adamantine reality that in a court of law, bullshit holds no weight. His base loves the bullshit. Judges, not so much. So, we’ll see him thrashing about like a spoiled ten-year old sent to timeout. A full year in which to weary of an increasingly tired act. And, of course, he’ll be a convicted felon several times over before we go to the polls.
So, Democrats, chill. It’s easy to blame the incumbent for everything wrong with your life when a pollster drops in for a chinwag. But I think we can trust the majority of Americans to make the only realistic choice when they enter the booth next year.
An old guy vs. an old moron. An old guy who accomplishes things for Americans vs. an old guy who promises everything will be easy … in two weeks. An old guy who likes to hug vs. an old guy who likes to rape. Given that binary choice, I think Americans will do the right thing.
And now we have even more evidence direct from actual voting booths. Huge, even astonishing, day for Democrats. Let’s run down the list.
– I confess that I did not see this one coming. The amazing run of conservatives who, in the quiet of the voting booth, decide they don’t want old white men dictating terms to women. It reminds me of Prohibition. The temperance movement worked for a century to outlaw alcohol. They finally win. And immediately everyone went, “Ah shit. Not sure we really like this.”
Now the anti-abortion folks finally achieve their goal, they repeal Roe v. Wade, and conservatives in Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, Montana, Ohio say, “Not so fast.” … Wait, did I just say Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, Montana, and Ohio?! … Well, yes I did. And it hasn’t even been close.
And one-third of white evangelicals voted for Ohio’s abortion-protecting amendment yesterday. … That ellipsis represents where I woke up on the floor and had to crawl to find my smelling salts.
Oh, you say, but two-thirds voted against it. Yes, but it should have been virtually 100%! One-third of white evangelicals voted to protect abortion access. Ohioans now have more protected abortion access than they had under Roe v. Wade!
And protecting abortion access was behind the clean sweep by Democrats of the Virginia House and Senate. Poor Glenn! And it was behind Kentucky keeping a Democratic governor. In a state that went for Trump by 25 points! And it was behind Democrats taking solid control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. One swing state the insurrectionists will have a hard time stealing. All of those undoubtedly fueled by evangelical votes.
Abortion was the White Whale in the world I grew up in. The one thing that galvanized evangelical political activity more than any other. And now they’ve speared him, and the Whale has turned around and rammed their good ship. And they’re not any happier about it than Ahab was. Suddenly they’re begging the whale to just swim away. Amazing!
– Let’s move on before I start hyperventilating. Ohio voters also voted to legalize recreational marijuana usage. Now Buckeye fans, Bengal fans, Reds fans, Cavs fans can get high on more than winning. Or maybe two highs at the same time.
– Moms for Liberty had a really bad evening. Moms for Denying Your Liberty should be their name. At any rate they supported 13 school board members across the state of Iowa in an attempt to ban books, ban history, ban knowledge in general, and they only got one of their moms across the finish line. In a county with 1000 people. And every house fixed on Fox. But they lost everywhere else!
– Let’s return to Virginia shall we. Where a certain Governor Glenn was convinced he had the goods. And Republicans around the nation were turning their lonely eyes to Youngkin dreaming of a Great White Hope to free them from the Great Orange Gas Bag.
But, alas, they’re stuck with the Gas Bag. Youngkin took a serious beatdown, as Democrats flipped the Virginia House and added to their lead in the Virginia Senate. Ah well, Republicans, maybe Nikki is your ticket. Keep the dream alive.
– Let’s pause again to celebrate Democrat Andy Beshear regaining the governorship of Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky. The Rapist-in-Chief went all in for Beshear’s opponent, and Beshear won handily. Folks just aren’t listening to Donnie the way they used to. He was entertaining for a while, but all that losing starts to wear away the shine.
– Oh, and while we’re in Kentucky, let’s pause to celebrate the victory of Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams. The hell, you say?! Yes. I know he’s a Republican. In Kentucky. Which means he’s so far off the starboard side that we’ll likely never reach him with the life preserver. But Adams is not a MAGA Republican. In fact, he told voters that his victory would “close the door on the clown show.” Whoa!
Adams: “Misinformation is on the ballot — whether we’re going to be a fact- and rationality-based government, when it comes to elections, or whether we’re gonna let conspiracy theorists run the show. It’s important that we have free and fair elections in a legitimate system. It’s also important for the image of our state and for our business environment that we’re not seen as a bunch of nut jobs, putting some kook into this very critical office.”
Um, he was referring to his fellow Republicans there. He said all that, and won with over 60% of the vote!
Any Republican willing to admit that reality and facts are important in a party that really hates reality and facts, well, that is a Republican to be celebrated.
So, Democrats, and any other Americans who hope for good things for their country, relax about those polls. As someone said today, “The best predictor of voter behavior is voter behavior.”
And, boy, did voters ever behave well yesterday! Make yourself a cocktail folks. You deserve it!